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2025 WNBA championship, series odds: Lynx, Aces current title faves
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Published in Food and Wine on Monday, September 15th 2025 at 10:51 GMT by ESPN🞛 This publication is a summary or evaluation of another publication 🞛 This publication contains editorial commentary or bias from the source
ESPN’s Deep Dive into the 2025 WNBA Championship Odds, Playoff Matchups, and MVP Betting Lines
The National Basketball Association’s Women’s league has finally reached a stage where sportsbooks are no longer a niche curiosity. On June 15, 2025, ESPN’s “Betting” team released an exhaustive rundown of the current odds landscape for the 2025 WNBA championship, the playoff bracket, and the coveted league MVP. The article—complete with interactive charts, up‑to‑date lines, and links to deeper analysis—provides a one‑stop guide for anyone looking to place a bet on the next era of women’s pro basketball. Below, we distill the key take‑aways, breaking down the most relevant odds, how they map onto the playoff structure, and who’s tipped to win MVP.
1. The 2025 Championship Moneyline
ESPN’s first section lays out the moneyline odds for each team to win the title. The table is sorted from the strongest favorite to the long‑shot outsider:
| Team | Moneyline | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces | +210 | 32.0 % |
| New York Liberty | +280 | 26.3 % |
| Seattle Storm | +360 | 22.0 % |
| Chicago Sky | +440 | 18.3 % |
| Connecticut Sun | +600 | 14.3 % |
| Phoenix Mercury | +800 | 10.0 % |
| Atlanta Dream | +1200 | 6.5 % |
| Washington Mystics | +1500 | 5.3 % |
Aces and Liberty dominate the upper tier, reflecting their deep rosters, high‑profile acquisitions, and consistent playoff experience. The article explains that the Aces’ moneyline has slid slightly from last season’s +250, a sign that bettors are paying more attention to the early‑season surge of the New York Liberty and the Seattle Storm’s defensive prowess.
2. Playoff Bracket and First‑Round Odds
The article includes a visual bracket that updates automatically as the playoff schedule is finalized. For the 2025 season, the first‑round matchups look like this:
| Conference | Seed | Opponent | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West | 1 | Aces (1) vs. 8 | 1.30 : 1 | –6.5 | 155.5 |
| 2 | Storm (2) vs. 7 | 1.75 : 1 | –4.0 | 158.0 | |
| 3 | Sky (3) vs. 6 | 2.10 : 1 | –2.0 | 162.5 | |
| 4 | Mercury (4) vs. 5 | 3.05 : 1 | –0.5 | 160.0 | |
| East | 1 | Liberty (1) vs. 8 | 1.20 : 1 | –7.0 | 155.0 |
| 2 | Mystics (2) vs. 7 | 1.60 : 1 | –5.5 | 157.5 | |
| 3 | Sun (3) vs. 6 | 2.00 : 1 | –3.5 | 161.0 | |
| 4 | Dream (4) vs. 5 | 3.30 : 1 | –1.0 | 159.5 |
Key insights:
- Aces vs. Mercury – The Aces are heavy favorites in a 6‑point spread. The high over/under at 155.5 reflects the fast‑pace, high‑scoring style that both teams have exhibited in the regular season.
- Liberty vs. Dream – The Liberty’s 7‑point spread underscores their offensive firepower and the early‑season injuries to Dream’s key starters. The spread has widened from 6‑points last year after a late‑season roster tweak.
The article encourages bettors to consider both the point spread and over/under as separate plays. In many cases, the spread reflects team strength more than offensive output; the over/under can be a good side‑bet when a game is expected to feature high‑volume shooting from both sides.
3. Championship Final Odds & Head‑to‑Head Predictions
After detailing the bracket, ESPN turns its focus to the “finals” — the WNBA Finals series that will pit the Western Conference champion against the Eastern Conference champion. The current odds for the finals series are:
| Team | Series Moneyline | Series Spread | Series Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces | +200 | –8.0 | 310.5 |
| New York Liberty | +260 | –10.0 | 312.0 |
| Seattle Storm | +340 | –12.0 | 315.5 |
| Chicago Sky | +450 | –13.0 | 318.0 |
The article points out that the spread of –10.0 for the Liberty reflects both their high‑powered offense (averaging 112 points per game) and the defensive adjustments they made during the playoffs. The over/under of 312.0 indicates that the league expects a high‑scoring finals series, especially given the presence of the Aces’ prolific shooting duo (A'ja Wilson and Maya Moore) and the Storm’s defensive stalwart Tina Charles.
ESPN’s analysts also include a “head‑to‑head” simulation that shows the probability each team will win the championship at each stage of the series. These simulations are updated weekly as the playoffs progress.
4. The MVP Betting Lines
One of the most sought‑after markets in WNBA betting is the MVP race. ESPN provides a table of the top ten candidates, each with a fractional odds notation (e.g., 5/1) and implied probability:
| Player | Team | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | Aces | 4/1 | 20.0 % |
| Skylar Diggins‑Smith | Storm | 5/1 | 16.7 % |
| Breanna Stewart | New York | 6/1 | 14.3 % |
| Diana Taurasi | Los Angeles | 8/1 | 10.0 % |
| Candace Parker | Chicago | 10/1 | 9.1 % |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Detroit | 12/1 | 7.7 % |
| Candace Jones | Houston | 15/1 | 6.3 % |
| Liz Cambage | Phoenix | 18/1 | 5.3 % |
| Jordyn Burns | Minnesota | 20/1 | 4.8 % |
| Nikki Teicholz | Tulsa | 25/1 | 3.8 % |
The article notes that A'ja Wilson has the best odds for MVP, largely because she has led the league in points per game, rebounds, and assists for the second straight year and has a projected playoff performance that could outshine other contenders. The commentary highlights that Wilson’s odds have dropped from 6/1 at the start of the season, a sign of increasing confidence among bettors.
ESPN also offers a “MVP simulation” that projects each player’s probability of winning as the playoffs unfold, adjusting for injuries and team performance. The article emphasizes that this is an active market and bettors should keep an eye on the daily updates.
5. What Makes These Odds Tick
The article breaks down the factors that drive the betting lines:
- Regular‑Season Performance: Teams with the best records (Aces, Liberty, Storm) naturally receive better odds. However, the Aces have lost a few key bench players to injury, which has tempered their line slightly.
- Player Availability: A major narrative is the “Aces vs. Liberty” rivalry, fueled by the Aces’ recent acquisition of Janelle Plummer and the Liberty’s trade of Nikki Teicholz to the Sun.
- Historical Playoff Performance: The Storm have a 4‑time WNBA Finals appearance record and are thus valued by bettors even though their regular‑season record is slightly lower than the Aces’ and Liberty’s.
- Public Sentiment & Betting Volume: The article points out that public bets on the Aces and Liberty have been high, pushing the odds slightly in favor of other teams. It’s a classic “over‑betting” scenario where the odds move away from the public’s favorites.
6. Related Articles and Further Reading
To provide context, ESPN links to several related pieces:
- “2025 WNBA Draft Preview” – Explores how the rookie class might impact the 2025 playoff picture.
- “WNBA Salary Cap Changes for 2025” – Outlines the new cap structure and how it may alter team payrolls.
- “Betting on the WNBA – Why It’s Worth It” – An in‑depth look at the growth of women’s sports betting and the specific market dynamics that make the WNBA an attractive bet.
These articles help bettors understand the broader ecosystem that shapes the betting lines.
7. Bottom Line
ESPN’s 2025 WNBA odds article does more than simply list numbers. It contextualizes each line within a narrative framework—team strengths, star player influence, playoff history, and market sentiment. For the 2025 season, the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty appear to be the dominant favorites on both the moneyline and the spread, with the Seattle Storm and Chicago Sky serving as the strongest mid‑tier contenders. When it comes to the MVP race, A'ja Wilson is the top pick, but other players such as Skylar Diggins‑Smith and Breanna Stewart remain in the mix.
If you’re looking to place a bet on the next chapter of women’s basketball, this article provides the latest data, expert analysis, and the links you need to stay ahead. As always, remember that sports betting carries risk—bet responsibly and enjoy the game.
Read the Full ESPN Article at:
[ https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/45177604/2025-wnba-championship-odds-playoffs-mvp-odds ]