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Global Wine Production Forecasts Modest Recovery in 2025, OIV Report

  //food-wine.news-articles.net/content/2025/11/12 .. orecasts-modest-recovery-in-2025-oiv-report.html
  Published in Food and Wine on Wednesday, November 12th 2025 at 4:01 GMT by Yen.com.gh

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Global Wine Production Forecasts a Modest Recovery in 2025, According to OIV

The latest figures released by the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) paint a picture of a wine industry still reeling from a sharp downturn in 2024 but looking toward a cautious rebound in 2025. The Ghana‑based news portal Yen.com.gh reports that the OIV’s annual “Wine and Spirits Trends” analysis indicates a 3‑4 % drop in world wine output last year, followed by a modest uptick in the coming season. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of the data, the underlying causes, and the broader implications for producers, consumers, and economies worldwide.

1. 2024: A Record Low in Production

• Total Global Output: The OIV announced that world wine production fell to 274.5 million hectolitres (hl) in 2024, a decline of 4.3 % from the 2023 benchmark of 282 million hl. This is the sharpest single‑year drop on record since the organisation began tracking data in 2002.

• Major Contributing Factors: - Climate‑Related Shocks: Extreme heat waves in Europe (notably in France, Italy, and Spain), prolonged drought in Chile and Argentina, and severe hailstorms in California all contributed to reduced grape yields. - Pest & Disease Pressures: The spread of the phylloxera parasite and a surge in powdery mildew infestations affected vineyards across the Southern Hemisphere. - Economic Headwinds: Inflationary pressures, tightening credit markets, and higher input costs (especially for fertilizer and fuel) squeezed margins for smaller growers. - Labor Shortages: Post‑COVID labour shortages meant fewer workers were available for harvesting and pressing, leading to sub‑optimal yields.

• Regional Breakdown: - Europe: The EU’s contribution dropped from 84 million hl in 2023 to 80 million hl, largely driven by the UK and France. - The Americas: Chile’s output slipped from 28 million hl to 25 million hl, while California’s reduced output by 3 million hl. - Australia & New Zealand: Both regions recorded a decline of roughly 1.5 % each, mainly due to heat‑stress on vineyards. - Africa & Asia: Production increased modestly in South Africa (from 5.8 million hl to 6.0 million hl) and in China, where wine consumption is rising rapidly.

2. 2025: A “Modest Recovery”

The OIV forecasts a slight rebound in 2025, with world wine output projected at 276 million hl. This represents a 0.7 % increase from 2024 and a 4.5 % rise over 2023, signalling a gradual return to pre‑crisis levels.

• What’s Driving the Upswing?
  1. Improved Weather Conditions: A milder winter in Europe and a more predictable rainfall pattern in South America are expected to boost grape quality and yields.
  2. Technological Advancements: Adoption of precision viticulture tools (drones, soil sensors, and climate‑adapted rootstocks) is helping growers mitigate climate risks.
  3. Policy Support: Some governments have announced subsidies and grants aimed at fostering climate‑resilient vineyards—especially in the EU’s “Green Deal” initiatives and Chile’s “Biosecurity Plan.”
  4. Growing Global Demand: Consumption trends in emerging markets—especially China, India, and the Middle East—continue to drive demand for both local and imported wines.

• Projected Growth Rates by Region
  - EU: Expected to increase by 2 % to 82 million hl.
  - Chile: Anticipated rebound of 1.5 % to 26.5 million hl.
  - China: Forecasts a 5 % rise in domestic wine production as domestic vineyards expand.
  - United States: A modest 0.5 % increase, primarily in California, as irrigation systems improve.

3. Consumption Trends: Where the Demand Lies

While production has been the headline, the OIV report highlights shifting consumption patterns:

• Europe & North America: Consumption remained relatively stable, with a slight 1 % dip in the U.S. due to changing consumer tastes toward lighter, rosé‑style wines.
• China & India: These markets saw the most significant growth—up by 8 % in China and 6 % in India—driven by middle‑class expansion and increasing wine‑drinking culture.
• Africa: South Africa’s domestic market grew by 3 %, while export sales to the U.S. and EU hit new highs.
• Middle East & Asia‑Pacific: Demand for fortified wines and premium varietals increased, especially in the UAE and Singapore.

4. Implications for the Wine Industry

4.1 Economic Impact

• Rural Communities: Many wine regions are heavily reliant on agriculture‑related employment. A 4 % decline in production directly translates to reduced income for vineyard workers, wine merchants, and ancillary service providers.
• Export Dynamics: Countries that have traditionally relied on wine exports (e.g., Chile, Argentina, Australia) experienced a temporary hit to foreign exchange earnings, though the modest 2025 rebound mitigates this impact.

4.2 Environmental & Sustainability Efforts

• Climate Adaptation: The OIV report underscores a growing focus on climate‑smart viticulture—e.g., canopy management, drip irrigation, and new grape varieties tolerant to heat and drought.
• Carbon Footprint: Many producers are investing in low‑carbon practices, such as biodynamic farming, renewable energy usage in wineries, and carbon‑offset programmes to reduce their environmental footprint.

4.3 Trade & Policy

• Tariffs & Trade Agreements: Ongoing negotiations between the EU, U.S., and China on trade tariffs could influence the market trajectory, especially for premium wines.
• Regulation of Pesticides: Stricter EU pesticide regulations and growing consumer demand for “organic” wine are shaping production methods.

5. Key Takeaways

1. 2024 was a record low year for wine production, driven by climate shocks, pest pressures, and economic constraints.
2. A modest rebound is forecast for 2025, with the global market expected to edge closer to pre‑2023 levels.
3. Emerging markets—particularly China, India, and parts of Africa—continue to lead consumption growth, underscoring the importance of expanding supply chains in these regions.
4. Sustainability and climate resilience are becoming central themes, influencing how producers operate and how the industry positions itself for future shocks.
5. Policy support and technological innovation will be decisive factors in shaping the speed and magnitude of the recovery.

6. Further Reading & Sources

• OIV “Wine and Spirits Trends 2025” Report – The primary source for the figures cited in this summary. Available for download on the OIV website (https://www.oiv.org).
• World Wine Organisation (WWO) – A trade association for the wine industry that frequently publishes market outlooks and sustainability guidelines.
• Yen.com.gh Business & Economy Section – Provides ongoing coverage of commodity markets, including wine production statistics and market analysis.
• International Wine and Spirits Association (IWSA) – Offers resources on global consumption patterns and trade data.

In a sector that has always been closely tied to the whims of weather and the vagaries of consumer preference, the wine industry’s trajectory in 2025 serves as a bellwether for the resilience of global agriculture. While the numbers paint a modest picture, the underlying trend—an industry learning to adapt, innovate, and anticipate climate and economic shocks—signals that the grapevine’s future may well be more secure than it has been in recent memory.