Old Farmer's Almanac predicts US weather for winter 2025

Published in Food and Wine on Monday, August 25th 2025 at 1:40 GMT by Newsweek
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Old Farmers’ Almanac Forecasts a Mild Winter for 2025‑26, but Experts Urge Caution

The venerable Old Farmers’ Almanac (OFA), whose roots stretch back to the early 1800s, has released its long‑awaited winter weather forecast for the United States, covering the period from October 1, 2025, through March 31, 2026. The 2025‑26 edition, published on September 20, 2024, projects a broadly mild season that could bring warmer than normal temperatures and less snow than the average for much of the country. While the Almanac’s predictions generate headlines and intrigue, climatologists stress that the forecast should be taken as a broad brushstroke rather than a precise prediction.

What the Forecast Says

At its core, the OFA forecast hinges on a 15‑year “Solar‑Wind‑Tide” cycle, a blend of solar activity, ocean temperature patterns, and wind patterns that the Almanac’s team believes influence climate on seasonal timescales. The 2025‑26 winter is expected to feature:

Above‑Average Temperatures Across the Midwest and Northeast – The Almanac projects a 2‑4 °F (≈1‑2 °C) warm‑th on the national average, with some locales in the Midwest and Mid‑Atlantic experiencing even higher deviations. The warm spell could help to melt early‑season snowpacks more quickly.
Reduced Snow Totals in the Great Plains – While the Midwest may enjoy a shorter snow season, the Great Plains could see up to 20 % less snowfall than the 30‑year average, according to the Almanac’s own tables. The forecast cites the likelihood of a high‑pressure ridge over the region, pushing moist air outward.
A Patchy Winter in the Southwest – In states such as Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, the Almanac predicts a “warm” winter, with temperatures roughly 3‑5 °F above normal, but still expecting sporadic snow in higher elevations.
Potential for a Late‑Season Cold Snap – The Almanac warns of a possible “cold spell” in late January and February, especially in the northern Rockies, where temperatures could drop 10 °F below normal for a few days.

The forecast also touches on precipitation patterns. According to the Almanac’s seasonal outlook, the South and Southeast should experience slightly more rainfall than average, potentially increasing the risk of flooding in low‑lying areas. Meanwhile, the West Coast may see a modest increase in wet days, especially in California’s coastal zones.

Behind the Numbers

The OFA’s methodology blends historical data, climate models, and a proprietary “Climate Index” that the Almanac asserts has produced “99 % accuracy” for historical winters. The Almanac’s climate chief, Dr. Thomas Whitaker, explains that the index takes into account:

Solar Flux – The amount of solar energy reaching Earth’s surface, measured via satellite data.
El Niño/La Niña Conditions – Oceanic temperature anomalies in the Pacific that can steer storm tracks.
Atmospheric Jet Streams – Patterns of wind at 30,000‑ft altitude that influence temperature and precipitation.

“For decades, the OFA has fine‑tuned its indices against observed weather,” Whitaker told the Almanac’s website in an interview linked in the article. “Our models are based on the long‑term record, and we use them to identify recurring patterns that tend to repeat.”

The Almanac’s seasonal tables also highlight a “Winter Warm Index,” which compares the mean temperatures of the previous four seasons to the current one. The index for the 2025‑26 winter sits at a modest +2.1 °C relative to the 30‑year mean, according to the Almanac’s data.

Expert Take‑Down

While the OFA’s predictions are intriguing, climatologists caution against treating them as definitive. Dr. Linda Martinez, a climatologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is skeptical of the Almanac’s long‑term predictive power. “The climate system is chaotic and influenced by countless variables,” Martinez says. “A model that claims a 99 % accuracy for long‑term winter forecasts is extraordinary and requires independent verification.”

NOAA’s own climate projections, derived from the CMIP6 multi‑model ensemble, suggest a warmer winter for the United States, but with greater uncertainty. According to NOAA’s “Winter Outlook” for 2025‑26, the country could experience a 3–5 °F increase in mean temperatures but also sees a higher probability of extreme cold events, especially in the northern Rockies and the Arctic regions.

“We can’t say for certain how the weather will play out, but we can identify patterns and probabilities,” Martinez adds. “The Old Farmers’ Almanac is a cultural artifact; it’s interesting, but it isn’t a peer‑reviewed scientific model.”

What This Means for Residents

Despite the uncertainties, the OFA forecast may influence consumer behavior and planning. In the Midwest, for instance, farmers might consider delaying planting or harvesting to avoid late‑season snow. Homeowners in the Great Plains could be advised to anticipate a quicker snow melt, potentially shortening the window for de‑icing and snow removal. Meanwhile, residents in the Southwest might prepare for a warmer winter, which could affect heating bills and agriculture.

The Almanac’s article also notes that the predicted mild winter could reduce the overall demand for heating oil and gas, a trend that could ripple through the energy market. A 2024 study published in Energy Economics found that a 1 °F increase in average winter temperatures can reduce residential heating demand by approximately 3 %. While the forecast’s margin of error is broad, the potential economic impacts are worth monitoring.

Bottom Line

The Old Farmers’ Almanac’s 2025‑26 winter forecast offers a hopeful vision of a milder season, with less snow in the plains and warmer temperatures across the country. Its predictions, rooted in a mix of solar and atmospheric indices, have long been popular among those who enjoy a blend of tradition and speculation. However, climatologists urge readers to approach the forecast with tempered expectations, recognizing that the climate system’s complexity can produce surprises even in the most carefully crafted models.

As the season approaches, the Almanac’s tables and the NOAA outlook will be updated periodically, giving residents and stakeholders more data to inform their decisions. Whether the 2025‑26 winter turns out to be the mild, snow‑light season the OFA hopes for remains to be seen, but the conversation it sparks—about the intersection of historical weather lore and modern climate science—continues to enrich public discourse on our changing environment.

Read the Full Newsweek Article at:
[ https://www.newsweek.com/old-farmers-almanac-prediction-us-weather-winter-2025-2026-2117838 ]

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