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Japan''s Ishiba faces difficult election amid far-right surge - DW - 07/20/2025

Japan's Ishiba Braces for Tough Election Battle as Far-Right Gains Momentum

In the bustling political landscape of Japan, newly appointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is gearing up for what could be one of the most challenging elections in recent memory. As the leader of the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Ishiba has called for snap parliamentary elections on October 27, a move aimed at consolidating his power shortly after taking office. However, this decision comes amid a surge in far-right sentiments and a host of domestic and international pressures that threaten to upend the LDP's decades-long grip on power. Analysts and observers are watching closely, as the outcome could reshape Japan's political future, influence its economic policies, and affect its role on the global stage.

Ishiba, a veteran politician known for his expertise in defense and agriculture, ascended to the premiership following a leadership contest within the LDP. He succeeded Fumio Kishida, whose tenure was marred by scandals involving unreported political funds and slush funds linked to party factions. These controversies have eroded public trust in the LDP, which has ruled Japan almost uninterrupted since 1955. Ishiba's swift call for elections is seen as a strategic gamble to capitalize on his initial popularity and secure a fresh mandate before opposition forces can fully mobilize. Yet, polls suggest that the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, might fall short of a majority in the lower house, potentially forcing Ishiba into uncomfortable alliances or even a minority government.

At the heart of the electoral drama is the rising tide of far-right politics in Japan. Groups and parties espousing nationalist views, revisionist history, and a hardline stance on issues like immigration and security are gaining traction. The Japan Innovation Party (JIP), often described as a populist right-wing outfit, has been particularly vocal. Led by figures who advocate for constitutional revisions to bolster Japan's military capabilities, the JIP is positioning itself as an alternative to the LDP's more centrist conservatism. This surge is fueled by broader societal anxieties: economic stagnation, an aging population, and geopolitical tensions with neighbors like China and North Korea. Voters disillusioned with the status quo are turning to these voices, which promise bold changes, including a tougher defense posture and economic reforms.

The far-right momentum is not isolated to fringe elements. It reflects a deeper shift in Japanese society, where historical debates over wartime atonement and national identity continue to simmer. For instance, proposals to amend Article 9 of Japan's pacifist constitution—which renounces war and prohibits maintaining armed forces—have long been a rallying cry for conservatives. Ishiba himself has expressed support for such revisions, aligning him somewhat with far-right sentiments, but he must tread carefully to avoid alienating moderate voters. Critics argue that this surge could polarize politics, drawing parallels to similar trends in Europe and the United States, where nationalist parties have disrupted traditional power structures.

Economic woes are compounding Ishiba's challenges. Japan, the world's third-largest economy, is grappling with inflation, a weakening yen, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hikes have stirred controversy, with some blaming them for exacerbating household financial strains. Ishiba has pledged to address these issues through measures like increasing wages and supporting rural economies, drawing on his background as a former agriculture minister. However, opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), are hammering the LDP on its handling of scandals and failure to deliver on promises of economic revitalization. The CDP, led by Yoshihiko Noda, is campaigning on themes of transparency and social welfare, aiming to peel away voters frustrated with LDP corruption.

Security concerns are another pivotal issue in this election. With China's assertive actions in the East China Sea and North Korea's missile tests, Japanese voters are increasingly prioritizing national defense. Ishiba, a self-proclaimed defense geek, has advocated for strengthening Japan's Self-Defense Forces and deepening alliances with the United States. He envisions Japan playing a more proactive role in regional security, potentially including the development of counterstrike capabilities. This stance resonates with far-right groups who push for remilitarization, but it also raises alarms among pacifist segments of society. The election could determine whether Japan accelerates its shift away from postwar pacifism, a move that would have ripple effects across Asia.

The far-right surge is manifesting in various ways. Smaller parties like the Sanseito (Participation Party) and other nationalist outfits are fielding candidates who criticize what they see as excessive foreign influence and call for a revival of traditional Japanese values. Social media has amplified these voices, with online campaigns highlighting issues like immigration control and historical education. While Japan has historically low immigration rates, recent labor shortages have led to more foreign workers, sparking debates that far-right groups exploit to stoke fears of cultural dilution. This rhetoric echoes global populist trends, where economic insecurity blends with identity politics to fuel division.

Ishiba's personal appeal is a double-edged sword. Nicknamed "the policy wonk," he has a reputation for straightforwardness and expertise, which contrasts with the perceived elitism of previous LDP leaders. His rural roots and focus on decentralizing power from Tokyo to the provinces could win over voters in less urban areas, where the LDP has strongholds. However, his past criticisms of party insiders might alienate factions within the LDP, complicating internal unity. In a recent speech, Ishiba emphasized the need for "a politics that listens to the people," but skeptics question whether he can deliver amid the party's entrenched interests.

Opposition dynamics add another layer of complexity. The CDP is attempting to form a united front with other left-leaning parties, such as the Japanese Communist Party and the Democratic Party for the People. Their strategy focuses on anti-corruption reforms and addressing inequality, particularly for women and young people. Japan's gender gap remains stark, with women underrepresented in politics and the workforce, an issue that could sway urban voters. Meanwhile, the far-right's rise might fragment the conservative vote, potentially benefiting the opposition if they capitalize on LDP scandals.

Internationally, the election holds significance beyond Japan's borders. As a key U.S. ally, Japan's political stability is crucial for Indo-Pacific security frameworks like the Quad (involving the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India). A weakened LDP could lead to policy hesitations on trade deals or defense spending, affecting global supply chains and regional deterrence against China. Economists warn that prolonged uncertainty could further depress the yen and impact markets worldwide.

As the campaign intensifies, public opinion polls show a tight race. The LDP's approval ratings hover around 30-40%, down from previous highs, while support for far-right alternatives is climbing into double digits. Voter turnout, historically low in Japan, could be a deciding factor; higher participation might favor challengers. Ishiba has been crisscrossing the country, holding town halls and promising reforms, but the shadow of scandals looms large. One recent poll indicated that over 60% of respondents believe the LDP needs to clean house, underscoring the electorate's demand for accountability.

In conclusion, Shigeru Ishiba's snap election call is a high-stakes bid to navigate Japan's turbulent political waters. Amid economic pressures, security threats, and a burgeoning far-right movement, the vote on October 27 could either reaffirm the LDP's dominance or herald a new era of multiparty competition. The surge in nationalist sentiments reflects deeper societal shifts, challenging Japan to balance its pacifist heritage with modern realities. Whatever the outcome, it will test Ishiba's leadership and shape the nation's trajectory for years to come. As Japan stands at this crossroads, the world watches to see if tradition holds or if change sweeps in on the winds of discontent.

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